明報 社評 筆陣
2015年7月17日
社評︰日本告別和平國家道路 中國應以實際行動反制
日本安倍政府強行在國會通過新安保法案，改變日本的和平國家道路；新法案是由專守防衛政策，一百八十度的變為可以對外用兵。以日本侵略往績和模糊史實、推卸戰爭責任的做法，現在竟然可以出兵他國，這個國家對本地區以至全球的和平構成什麼衝擊和影響，難以估計。日本首相安倍晉三不諱言新安保法案有助於應對包括中國崛起的挑戰，對於這般心態的日本，中國的溫良恭儉讓是不是已經過時?北京應該針鋒相對，並做好宿敵再次來犯的準備。
安倍逆民意強行通過
新安保法劍指中國
日本的新安保法案，除了學者紛紛表態指其違憲之外，主流民意也強烈反對。日本多家媒體的民意調查顯示，近六成日本民眾反對新安保法案，八成民眾認為國會審議草率，對法案無法理解。另外，安倍的民望顯著下滑，反對他任首相的比率已經超過支持度。不過，安倍背逆民意，堅持強推新安保法案，利用自民黨和公明黨執政聯盟在眾議院佔逾三分之二多數的優勢，強行通過法案。安倍對改變和平國家道路之志在必得，可說是不惜一切後果。
二戰之後70年，日本和平憲法被新安保法案徹底顛覆了；其憲法第9條規定日本實行「專守防衛」國策，可是新安保法案通過之後，即使日本沒有直接受到攻擊，仍然可以行使集體自衛權的名義而對其他國家動用武力。因此，安倍繞過修憲搞新安保法案，實際上使憲法第9條變得名存實亡。這意味著，日本可隨時根據需要向海外派兵並向其他國家軍隊提供支援，參與戰爭。對於有侵略往績、特別是美化侵略的日本，這個顛覆性的改變，使人不寒而慄。
日本和平憲法是由美國主導制定，日本一直想擺脫處處受掣肘的狀況，要成為一個「正常國家」。美國把戰略重心移向亞洲，搞所謂「亞太再平衡」，倚賴日本協作，共同遏制中國；美國此舉給予日本成為正常國家，提供了機會。新安保法案強行通過後，美國國務院第一時間表示歡迎，這絕非禮儀表態，而是新訂<<日美防衛指針>>，有關日本有義務在全球配合美軍軍事任務的規定，在法理上得以確立。
事實上，在審議新安保法案過程中，安倍一再表示法案目的包括應對中國崛起的挑戰，他針對中國的用心，或許較美國更強烈。安倍二度執政之後，對中國採取強硬立場，不斷宣揚所謂「中國威脅論」，又藉釣魚島事件渲染中日緊張關係，拉美國落水，然後在東海攪局，最新發展就是在南海事態也插上一腿。新安保法案可視為日本對中國構成戰略威懾，從安倍的角度，這是日本重振聲威、遏制中國的機會；就美日聯手，新安保法案可視為欲翻滾亞太局勢，遏制中國的立法。
安倍的用心，或許不止於此。6月底，有幾家日本周刊和網站接連爆出安倍一些驚人言論，事緣他與媒體高層在一個聯誼場合喝酒之後坦承︰「安保法案就是衝著南海上的中國」；媒體描述安倍「大大方方地承認自己確實在謀劃與中國的戰爭，並表示要行使集體自衛權，與美軍一起敲打在南海上的中國」云云。安倍這番話，日本官方並未釐清，僅含糊其辭，敷衍過去。酒後或許是胡言亂語，當不得真，卻同樣可以是酒後吐真言，講的是肺腑之言；據日本媒體描述，安倍當時喝了酒卻沒有喝醉，因此對這番酒後之言的理解，各人或許不同，但是可以肯定是絕非對中國友好的說辭。
不滿勿僅止於言辭
應有實際行動反制
就日本國會通過新安保法案，國務委員楊潔箎和外交部發言人都有回應，應該是反映了中國的立場，並對日本的做法提出警惕之意。然而，這些口頭說法，日本會在意嗎?且看新安保法案通過之際，日本國家安全保障局長谷內正太郎已抵達北京；據日方透露，他將與楊潔箎會面，討論安倍晉三能否在9月初訪華，並要與國家主席習近平舉行首腦會談，亦可能向中方說明安倍稍後發表的戰後70年談話方向，云云。
日本的外交工夫，做得十分細緻，通過針對中國的新安保法案的同時，谷內正太郎同時臨門，要商討首腦會談，客觀上陷入中國於難以推卻的景況。不過，這些都是小動作，若中國不滿安倍，仍然可以拒談什麼首腦會談。事實上，要習近平與謀劃對中國戰爭的安倍共商大計，是很大的諷刺。中國曾公開表示已經邀請安倍出席9月3日在北京舉行的紀念抗戰勝利的活動，日方則趁機操作為安倍到訪中國舉行首腦會談，這是日本企圖以四兩撥千斤，妄想在外交上化解壓力的盤算。問題是︰中國會否被日本牽著鼻子走?
在日本通過新安保法案之後，中國即時接待日本內閣官員，本來已經使人難以理解；在安倍就二戰70周年講話未知道將如何洗脫侵略罪行之前，中國與日方舉行首腦會談，顯然是褻瀆。日本咄咄逼人，中國目前的取態應該是適度地強硬，對日本開展針鋒相對的鬥爭，而非讓日本在外交上予取予攜。嚴格而言，現在北京對日關係降級甚至召回大使，都是可以考慮的選項。
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33549015
Japan's (self) defence forces
16 July 2015
The impassioned debate surrounding Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's desire to give Japan's defence forces a wider role obscures the fact that the country is already a significant military player. It has well-equipped air, sea and land forces with ambitious modernisation plans under way.
The defeat of Japanese militarism in World War Two and the experience of suffering the world's only atomic bomb attacks left the country with a deep vein of pacifism.
But Japan's strategic geography - proximity to both the then-Soviet Union and China - meant that it ultimately needed to deploy its own basic defence forces. Their role though was heavily circumscribed and Japan avoided all foreign military entanglements.
Some 70 years later, the picture has changed dramatically. The Cold War may be over and the Soviet Union no more but now a rising China is driving security concerns in the region.
Japan remains the United States' key ally in the region. And with the scale and reach of China's military growing significantly, Japan has been modernising its own forces.
Chinese driver
Its army of some 150.000 troops is small (but still larger than that of Britain, one of Nato's middle-ranking players whose forces stand at some 84,000).
It has an impressive navy including a small helicopter carrier, two Aegis-equipped cruisers with sophisticated radars and battle management systems, and some 34 destroyers and nine frigates of various types. It also has some 80 anti-submarine warfare or maritime patrol aircraft.
Given the potential threat from North Korea's missile arsenal, Japan has a growing interest in ballistic missile defence.
The country hosts two highly sophisticated US radars to track such weapons. It currently has four destroyers capable of shooting down ballistic missiles along with land-based PAC-3 missile interceptors. More are planned.
But above all it is China's widening security horizons that are driving Japan's military modernisation.
This year, Japan's Maritime Self-Defence Force commissioned its largest vessel yet - a new helicopter carrier - the JS Izumo. This could potentially embark a number of V- 22 Osprey vertical lift aircraft - and Japan is thought to be interested in buying up to 17 of them from the United States.
More Aegis anti-missile warships are planned and brand new, Japanese-built maritime patrol aircraft are coming into service.
Foreign exercises
Over the years, Japan has also widened its sphere of international military activities.It's been a slow process with the country dipping its toes slowly into the field of foreign entanglements.
But Japanese warships have participated in international anti-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa and Japanese maritime patrol aircraft have supported this mission from Djibouti.
Japan has also slowly begun to take part in military exercises further from its shores. In July 2014, it participated for the third time in joint US-indian naval manoeuvres and a small contingent of Japanese troops is currently involved in the joint US-Australian Talisman sabre exercise.
So in many ways the sorts of reforms being pushed by Prime Minister Abe have already been under way - little by little - for many years.
Nonetheless, making the changes explicit raises strong passions among the Japanese public, and any perceived revival of Japan as a military player prompts strong reactions from those who have suffered from its military expansionism in the past - notably China.
What is collective self-defence?
Japan's post-World War Two constitution bars it from using force to resolve conflicts except in cases of self-defence.
Mr Abe's government has pushed for a change that would revise the laws such that Japan's military would be able to mobilise overseas when these three conditions are met
- when Japan is attacked, or when a close ally is attacked, and the result threatens Japan's survival and poses a clear danger to people
- when there is no other appropriate means available to repel the attack and ensure Japan's survival and protect its people
- use of force is restricted to a necessary minimum
Some strategists might say that the military distinction between self-defence and a more expansive regional military role is redundant.
In the maritime sector, defence must be forward - beginning far from a country's own shores. Japan's defence depends fundamentally upon its close alliance with the United States and thus it makes sense for Japan's armed forces to operate according to similar concepts and strategic parameters.
This though is to overlook the huge weight of history in the region - a burden made even heavier by suspicions among some countries that Japan has not really fully come to terms with its aggressive past.
Whatever the statements of some more conservative Japanese politicians, the anguished debate over the country's changing posture would suggest that many ordinary Japanese are all too well aware of their history which makes Mr Abe's path a bumpy one to say the least.
